A month ago, I wrote about possible responses that President Biden might take in response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine. In no particular order, here are a few of the things I’ve been learning or thinking now that Russia has actually invaded.
–My original comparison of Ukraine to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1980 has been apt, and if anything, understated. While Jimmy Carter publicly levied sanctions and boycotts of Russia, he only sent RPGs and anti-air Stinger missiles to Afghanistan in secret, via back channels and neutral countries. In contrast, we have seen the US and many other countries publicly commit to directly sending anti-armor weapons and munitions to Ukraine. And a little bit similar to their experience in 1980s Afghanistan…
-…Russia has so far struggled in ways that they really should have prepared for. Despite having advanced intelligence, Russia failed to destroy Ukraine’s air force and anti-air capabilities. As such, they have struggled to establish air superiority over the skies, leaving their advance units vulnerable to counter-attack by sky or air. Already, I’ve seen reports of a Ukrainian pilot shooting down 6 Russian planes in a single day, something that hasn’t happened in Europe since WWII. Beyond the air, Russian supply lines have been overextended, leaving their troops lost, out of fuel, and vulnerable.
–Russia’s timeline for the start of the invasion was fairly obvious to those who were paying attention. While on NPR and other media outlets were questioning why the Biden administration kept saying invasion was imminent day after day, it’s clear that the intelligence was spot on. Moreover, experts had long said that Russia wanted to wait to invade Ukraine until mid-February or early March, when the ground would be most frozen and allow their tanks and support vehicles to traverse the ground without getting stuck in mud. No one should be surprised that 150,000 troops weren’t just there for “exercises”; that they were there to be an invasion force. The fact that some nations, such as Germany, were indeed surprised, shows a lack of understanding of how Putin works. In retrospect the Biden administration to continue to share publicly all the intelligence about Russian activities (in order to forestall a “false flag” operation, among other things) appear to be very prescient, and most likely denied the Russians a meaningful “casus belli” (cause for war).
–This was never just about the pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine; instead it’s about installing a pro-Moscow leader and solidifying holds over Ukrainian resources. Ever since the Kyiv revolution in 2014 overthrew the pro-Russian president, Putin has been looking for ways to re-install a sympathetic regime in Ukraine. In fact, the day before Russia actually invaded I was texting with a friend and stated this very thing, that it seems likely that Putin’s goal is to kill Zelensky (who is pro-EU and pro-Western) and install a ruler that Russia can control. That’s why we’ve seen so many Russian saboteur units attempt to sneak into Kyiv, and a strong focus on taking that city, and it makes Zelensky’s decision to stay and fight all the more bold. He must be careful to only surround himself with the most loyal of advisors; an assassin only has to be successful 1 out of a 100 times to topple his government. Additionally, taking most of eastern Ukraine will allow Russia to control the gas, oil, and water supplies that flow through the region: I did not know this until yesterday, but the Crimean peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 is reliant upon the flow of water that comes from central Ukraine–and it has been cut off by Zelensky in retribution for that annexation. It’s essential that Putin control either the government or the land mass of Ukraine east of the Dnieper; and preferably both.
–Trump’s attempt to blackmail Ukraine by withholding military aid in 2019 seems even more odious in hindsight. Most people have forgotten the circumstances that triggered the first Trump impeachment, but it involved Trump trying to manipulate Ukraine and Zelensky into launching false, public investigation of Joe Biden by choosing to withhold military aid. (Ukraine continued to be a talking point among the right-wing media for years, to the point that many still reflexively support Putin!) Given Trump’s stated desire to pull the United States out of NATO in his second term and withdraw military support from European nations facing the guns of Russia, it’s clear that Putin thought that he could get away with a quick invasion of a country that apparently did not have the full support of the United States.
-Putin has energized Western European nations to unify and mobilize militarily in ways not seen in decades. Despite Trump’s best attempts to force Germany to increase their defense spending (like Obama before him), that country had long refused to raise military spending to the minimum goal of 2% of GDP, nor send military aid to Ukraine. Both of those things have changed in the past 7 days, with the chancellor pledging a massive increase in military spending and shipping anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Germany is not alone; many other nations in NATO and the EU have pledged unprecedented military responses to Russia. As Thucydides predicted 2500 years ago, when a powerful state begins to assert itself, even if its purpose is to increase its own security, it inevitably cause surrounding nations to rally to counter this rising threat. If Putin’s stated desire was to prevent NATO and EU from mobilizing against Russian interests, he has caused the exact opposite to happen.
–Just like the Biblical story in Judges 12 about the word “shibboleth”, Russian invaders have been vulnerable to small cultural differences including the pronunciation of certain words. While there are major linguistic similarities between the two countries, Ukrainians have been able to identify and halt Russians by asking them to pronounce “palyanitsa“, the word for a type of bread. If the Russians can’t pronounce it, they are identified as outsiders and attacked. Relatedly, Ukrainians have torn down roadsigns (or replaced them with obscene phrases) to hinder the ability of Russians to find their way around the country.
–Though they share many similarities, the religious differences between Ukrainians and Russians are important to recognize. This has not been widely discussed in the mainstream media, but Putin’s connections to the Russian Orthodox Church may be a substantial motivator for him and others seeking to conquer Ukraine. Kyiv is the historic site for the founding of the Russian Orthodox Church, but the Ukraine Orthodox community has been seeking to distance themselves from Russia and the Patriarch Kirill (who is a major ally of Putin’s). Additionally, while in Russia evangelical Christians have faced persecution and hostility, videos have emerged of evangelicals in Ukraine worshipping in bomb shelters while shells rain down from the sky.
-Speaking of shells, a surprising amount of Russian armaments have failed. I have seen over a dozen pictures and videos of unexploded Russian ordinance (rockets and shells). While that always happens a certain number of times in war, the frequency seems to indicate subpar weapons and maintenance among the Russians. Their army and air force have vastly underperformed expectations, even granted Ukrainian tenacity.
-Ukraine may be an interesting test case for the American gun debate. Many Americans have long held that citizens need to be able to own automatic assault rifles to defend against a tyrannical governmental military force. Ukraine will be an interesting test case, given how many citizens there own AK-47s and other military-style weapons. Will that be enough to repel a Russian invasion? Or is it more the case that the decider will be the presence of anti-tank weapons, and RPGs? And if it’s the second one, can we finally stop pretending that a handful of citizens armed solely with rifles can meaningfully defeat a modern-day nation state? Or will gun activists in the US decide to start advocating for the right to own RPGs?
Anyway, there’s probably a lot more I could say, but I wanted to share a few quick responses to all that’s going on. As always, these are my personal thoughts, subject to change as new information arises.