Month: January 2023

Tweets I never Tweeted

I left Twitter a couple years ago, but sometimes I have pithy thoughts that are roughly the length of a 280 character Tweet. Here are some of them, in no particular order. [WARNING: As tweets, they are not very nuanced and tend to be pretty black-and-white…so please don’t read too much into them. Any intelligent person, including myself, could probably rebut every single one of these Tweets if given enough time and thought. Moreover, I myself don’t necessarily fully agree with all of them. But I think some of them are interesting and hopefully they provide some food for thought.]

  • To have CONVICTION is to affirm that everything you believe right now is true. To have HUMILITY is to realize that you’ve been wrong in the past about some things, and thus are probably wrong about some things in the present. To be a healthy pursuer of truth is to have BOTH conviction AND humility, and thus to respect those you disagree with (even if you think they’re wrong—after all, you have also been wrong in the past).
  • The invasion of Ukraine has simultaneously illustrated the benefits of local nuclear energy (more dependable than oil and gas imports) and the potential danger (intentional or accident incidents threatening to spread radiation).
  • I’m generally not a fan of how “masculinity” is defined in American culture, but even if I were, it’s strange to me why so many people view Donald Trump as such a manly man. He doesn’t drink alcohol or coffee, doesn’t exercise, wears makeup, is unfaithful to his wife, doesn’t hunt, never served in the military, rarely laughs…
  • If your theology is far more similar to the theology found among elite, educated, wealthy white American liberals than it is to that found among impoverished, oppressed, and persecuted Christians in non-Western nations, then I have some bad news about how “decolonized” your theology actually is…
  • People may wonder what a Christian pacifist view of the Ukraine war would be: What would a pacifist (such as myself) do in the situation? Well, given that ~70% of Russians identify as Christian, it can be assumed that if all the Christians in the Russian army held to Jesus’ view on violence (“love your enemies”), they would immediately throw down their arms and return home, ending the war outright.
  • There are two deep ironies to the Trump presidency. The first is that his most significant historic achievement, Operation Warp Speed, is the one accomplishment that means nothing to his most loyal supporters. The second is that his biggest legacy, the overturn of Roe v. Wade, is destined to hinder his party’s political popularity for a generation.
  • If you are unwilling or unable to understand the appeal of an ideology that you disagree with, then at best your efforts to oppose it will be ineffective, and at worst they will actually encourage it all the more.
  • When Democrats lost an important election in 2016, they knitted ‘pussy’ hats, wore black, and cried. When Republicans lost an important election in 2020, they claimed the election was stolen, bought guns, and assaulted the US Capitol. One side is clearly more likely to start a civil war than the other. (Given that fact, there’s probably not a real need to worry about a domestic civil war until liberals start buying guns. That’s when you should start to worry.)
  • The solution to the age-old Euthryphro Dilemma is similar to the solution of asking , “which side of a quarter is more important?” While the question makes sense on a logical level, the answer is to simply point out that both sides are not just equally important, but inseparable from each other. Similarly for the Euthryphro problem the answer is that ‘God’ and ‘Justice’ are two sides of the same coin.
  • The sentiment that “I have a right to sex and if I’m not getting any, it’s society’s fault in some way” is a subtly broken sentiment on several levels. While it sounds deeply progressive on the surface, it is also the sentiment at the foundation of the misogynistic and far-right “incel” movement. No one has a fundamental right to sex that must be granted to them by others.
  • Cattails seeds are like the kingdom of God. They are spread by the wind, and especially after being pecked at by others.
  • What percentage of people does “The System” have to work for for that system to be worth keeping ? (Assuming that no system can work for everyone). 99% ? 51% ? Something else? We should be cautious before throwing out a system without having a good idea of whether the system that replaces it would work any better.
  • Putins biggest mistake was not invading Ukraine while Trump was still president. There’s no way the US under Trump would have marshaled the resources that have come through for the Ukrainians in the past year.
  • I saw a tweet that said that “Any reason to get an abortion is the right one.” But I disagree; I can think of many reasons that a person could get an abortion that don’t seem like great reasons. For ex: 1. Genetic testing shows that I’m pregnant with a female. 2. My boyfriend is telling me to get an abortion or he’s going to leave me. 3. I am afraid my baby is going to be gay. 4. My job doesn’t offer parental leave. Etc.
  • There’s a loophole in Jesus’ command to “love your neighbor as yourself” in that if you don’t feel like loving them, you can just deport them somewhere else… and then they’re not your neighbor anymore!
  • The Bible is a bit like an invitation to a wedding. It contains immense value not only because of the words on the page but especially because it points to a wondrous banquet and invites one to RSVP “yes” or “no.”
  • For many Christians , Jesus is their Savior but he is not their Lord.
  • To help white people divest from white supremacy, it is not enough to simply love people of color. You must also love white people.
  • One ironic difference between an unarmed, committed pacifist and, say, one of the heavily armed Uvalde SWAT police officers (who refused to storm the school building while the shooter was inside actively shooting people), is that the pacifist is willing to risk death for the sake of their convictions, and the SWAT officers weren’t. 
  • As we see women slowly gain equality to men in society, will we see an increase in certain rates, such as female murderers, female mass shooters, etc? If not, why not? I actually think the answer really matters, because in it lies the clue for how to help modern men.
  • I think you can be a pacifist without being a universalist, however I find it hard to believe one can be a universalist without being a pacifist. If you believe no one is unworthy of being in God’s perfect presence in heaven, then how could you believe it would ever be justified to use deadly violence against them on earth? To be a universalist but not a pacifist is essentially to say: “God wouldn’t ever hold any of your sins against you-but I might!”
    • Elite liberals fixating on school shooters’ access to assault rifles as the most important topic in gun control is an example of the gentrification of an important political issue. Handguns kill far more people through gang shootings, suicides, and accidents, but those get a lot less attention than the specter of a shooter with an AR-15 in a peaceful suburban town.
    • There’s a perspective among some Christians that hell is not about burning in fire, but is merely just about being separated from God. Well, sure, I could buy that. However, if you believe that being completely separated from God‘s entire is the worst thing in the world, then that is actually worse than being in a lake of fire. If God is who He says he is, it would be far better to burn in fire with God (like Shadrach, Meshach, and Abednego), than to live in paradise without him!
    • Arguments about arming teachers in schools are pretty hilarious to me. When I taught middle school in Baltimore, I safely and effectively broke up 22 fights between students by physically intervening. I also broke up a high school fight on my street in Carlisle two years ago. I cannot think of a single fight where the presence of a sidearm strapped to my side would have made the situation safer, and more likely it would have made it far more dangerous (e.g., if the gun had accidentally discharged, or a student grabbed it in the middle of the tussle.) I think an argument could be made for there to be one or two armed resource officers in a school, but arming teachers–even with training– is just asking for trouble.
    • There’s actually some key ways that one can use arguments from the perspective of “progressivism/CRT” (loosely defined) in order to defend certain core Christian doctrines. For example, “Oh, you don’t believe in a Judgment Day? That’s a very privileged stance, to believe that no matter what systems of oppression you participate in, that God ultimately just doesn’t care. Most marginalized and oppressed groups long for a day when God judges the righteous and unrighteous.” Or – “ oh, you believe that truth is relative and each individual should figure out what is right and wrong for themselves? That’s a very individualistic, white Western perspective on morality. Most non-white and non-Western cultures have a more group-oriented perspective that takes into consideration the needs of the entire community, and the most marginalized within it, not just whatever a privileged person decides on their own.”
    • When edgy progressivism becomes the norm and institutionalized, it ceases to feel edgy. Instead it is conservatism that begins to feel edgy. 
    • Christians–whether more progressive or conservative–who portray Jesus as entirely different from the “violent, strict, legalistic” God of the Old Testament are showing how little they understand Jesus’ teachings, and moreover are engaging in theological anti-Semitism. Jews have worshipped the “God of the Old Testament” for 5000+ years, and to simply write him off as a hateful has-been is to indict their entire religion. 
    • Republicans who think we should cut back support for Ukraine and instead “be tough on China” are hopelessly confused. China is watching carefully how the US responds to Russian aggression in Ukraine, and if we are perceived as weak in any way, that will further encourage China to attack Taiwan and other nations. In our broken world, the best way to deter a Chinese invasion is to prove to them that US weapons can defend any ally against any aggressor.

Why did the Republicans underperform so badly in the 2022 midterms?

From 2021 onward, I was telling people around me to expect a big Republican wave in the 2022 midterms elections. Even though Joe Biden had just won a sizable victory over Donald Trump in November 2020, and inflation had yet to emerge at that point, any political scientist or historian could tell you that the President’s party almost always loses seats in their first midterm election. (The only notable exception was in 2002, when George W. Bush coasted on the popularity he gained after 9/11 and Republicans picked up both houses of Congress). Even in February 2021, but especially after the messy retreat from Afghanistan and economic turmoil, it seemed inevitable that the Republicans would win the Senate and House–it was just a question of how big that would be. Many Republican pundits prophesied a “Red Tsunami,” a historic win demolishing the Democrats across the board.

Instead, what we saw in the 2022 midterms was barely a red trickle. Republicans failed to secure the Senate, and barely eked out a narrow majority in the House. Why was that? I have four reasons why I think that Republicans underperformed in the midterms. Most of these reasons are fairly well sourced and accepted by other political scientists, but I wanted to gather them in one place for posterity’s sake. Interestingly, many of these reasons will continue to apply in future elections in 2024 and 2026, no matter who the candidates are, so they’re worth paying attention to.

Before we dive in: Let me must first note that America is a deeply polarized nation and that the margins between the two parties are very tight. Even just changing a few thousand votes can make the difference between victory and defeat. So as I go through these four reasons for the Republicans’ lackluster performance, know that even if they only affected 1% or even .1% of the population, that can be enough to swing many close elections.

#1 – Trump — and his handpicked candidates– turned off many voters.

Even though Trump wasn’t on the ballot, many voters explicitly rallied against candidates that were seen as too “Trumpy”, extreme, or otherwise hateful. Moderate Republicans won big in many races, while more radical candidates were rejected. It became clear that some voters even engaged in “ticket-splitting”, where they voted straight Republican for more local races but voted against people they didn’t trust at the top of the ticket, like Dr. Oz in PA, Heschel Walker in GA, and others. While a majority of voters dislike Democrat policies and politicians, they fear extreme Republicans even more and are willing to vote accordingly. What should have been a referendum on Biden-who is very unpopular-became a referendum on Donald Trump, who is even more unpopular. [This is the main reason I believe that if Trump runs in 2024, he will probably lose, whereas any other Republican seen as less Trumpy would definitely win.]

#2- The Republican cries against mail-in ballots (and trust in elections overall) may be driving down their turnout in otherwise winnable races.

Mail-in ballots have been used for over a decade in places like Colorado, where they were seen as trustworthy, non-partisan, and secure. On the whole mail-in ballots SHOULD privilege Republicans, who tend to be older and have more stable mailing addresses. (I know many young Democrats who don’t know how to address an envelope and who move every 6 months, and I know many elderly home-bound Republicans who would strongly benefit from being able to vote by mail.) Unfortunately, because of the Republican turn against mail-in ballots, most Republicans refuse to use them. That’s a shame, because that means that when election day comes around, if an inconvenience comes up that makes voting difficult, a certain percentage of Republicans just won’t vote at all, whereas Democrats would have already locked in their votes weeks prior.

Or even setting aside mail-in voting; there are so many Republicans who now believe that elections are completely rigged and that their votes don’t matter even if they vote in person. These Republicans may decide to give up on elections altogether and either embrace apathy or alternative ways to engage with politics…for better or for worse. I think this dynamic is going to be a long-term drag on the Republican Party’s electoral prospects for at least a few election cycles.

#3- Shy Abortion Voters may be emerging from the woodwork (and pro-life voters may be about to lose some steam)

In 2016, many pundits wrote about “shy Trump voters”, AKA those who weren’t showing up in official polls but who nonetheless turned out to vote for him in his surprise win over Hillary Clinton. In 2022, we may be seeing the emergence of “shy abortion voters” who were reacting against the end of Roe v. Wade and the passage of very strong anti-abortion laws in some states. These voters may not have cared much about abortion before 2022 when it was generally legal with some restrictions, but when they saw that it might become totally illegal even in cases of rape and incest, they decided that was a step too far. Even in very conservative Kansas, voters overwhelmingly rejected an abortion ban. The more extreme the rhetoric that comes from Republicans, the more likely this will become a stronger driving force for Democrat turnout.

On the flip-side, now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned some Republicans feel a bit dazed. What do we do now? Overturning a the national legal right to abortion was an easy, singular cause to rally people around. But now that that’s been accomplished and any gains must come at the state level, it will be harder to motivate the base in future elections, especially when the gains seem more controversial.

#4- COVID killed more Republicans than Democrats

This point may feel a bit hard to believe, but the data actually bears it out. While when COVID first hit it primarily affected liberal cities, but now it’s infected 90+% of Americans. As I stated earlier, on average Republican voters are older than Democrat voters, and thus more susceptible to death from COVID. Additionally, once the vaccine came out thanks to the Trump administration’s “Operation Warp Speed”, on average Republicans rejected it at far higher rates than Democrats. (Even Democratic-leaning communities that have reason to be skeptical of government medical inventions, such as Native Americans, African-Americans, and other people of color, have generally received the vaccine at higher rates than Republicans.) It is well known that unvaccinated people die from COVID at far higher rates than vaccinated people.

The end result? Of the 1.1 MILLION Americans that have died of COVID, a disproportionate amount of them were Republicans. That’s an average of 22,000 people in each state. In close races where even 1,000 votes can swing an election, that’s going to have an impact. (For example, Lauren Boebert, Republican firebrand, won her election by less than 600 votes).

IN CONCLUSION, while many of the midterm elections in 2022 were clearly won at the local level based on local issues, there are a handful of reasons that the Republicans nationally underperformed. Unfortunately for Republicans, all four of these reasons look likely to continue to have an impact in 2024 and beyond. If Republicans manage to win elections, it will be based on them overcoming these hindrances and leveraging other strengths, such as their recent gains among Latinos. But in the meantime two key recommendations I might have for them would be to figure out a way to get their voters to trust in elections again, and to find a way to quietly ditch Donald Trump.

Carlisle Truth & Reconciliation Commission – Part 2.

About two years ago, I wrote a blog post regarding the proposal for a Carlisle Truth & Reconciliation Commission (TRC), generally advocating for the creation of this TRC and sharing a few potential concerns. Last week, the Commission released a 19-page report with a summary of their findings and a number of suggestions for moving forward. You can read more about the report by clicking here, and you can view the full 19-page report below.

TRC-Report-to-Carlisle-Borough-CouncilDownload

I have a few quick thoughts in response to the TRC’s report. I’ll start with the things that I think it does really well.

-I think the TRC did an excellent job with the report given the time and energy that they had available (and I’m not just saying that because my friend Raz was on the team). The level of detail, suggestions, and concepts covered in the document show the team worked hard and covered a lot of ground, despite having some turnover within the team.

-I think the Carlisle TRC also did a good job in not exceeding their mandate; the suggestions all seem fairly reasonable, doable, and germane to the limitations of a small town like Carlisle. It might have been tempting to get bogged down into bigger national political conversations like reparations for slavery, reproductive health, or voting rights access, but the TRC wisely focused on issues within the jurisdiction of Carlisle and within the purview of the Carlisle Borough Council.

-I think the suggestion that the TRC become a permanent standing committee (similar to the Climate Action Committee) is a also wise one. There is a lot more that could be said and suggested that isn’t in this report, and there will only continue to be more issues that arise in the coming years and decades in Carlisle. (For example, racial justice might demand a new lens as our Borough incorporates hundreds of new refugees from various countries, who may or may not fit into the major pre-existing racial categories).

-I am glad the TRC did take time and space to discuss the injustices suffered by Native Americans in Carlisle and at the Carlisle Indian School. As I wrote 2 years ago, it was one of my concerns that this issue would be neglected and I’m glad to see it was not.

Now, I do have a few small concerns/lingering questions with the TRC’s report.

-As a lover of history, one thing that is not as present as I might have expected is some of the historical data and/or anecdotes to illustrate the main points within the TRC report. Perhaps it would have been too lengthy to include, but for people who may not as familiar with the history of racism in America it can be really helpful to have a few key statistics or stories to really lock in the main points. To name one example, on pg. 12 the report references the divides on “the wrong side of the (railroad) tracks.” As someone who lives on the “wrong” side of the tracks, and because I know some of the history of red-lining, I understood what the report was implying, but I think some more explanation or history would have been helpful. Did red-lining happen in Carlisle the same way it did in other cities? Besides the neglected Union Cemetery in Memorial Park, are there instances where the Borough clearly underinvested in areas north of the tracks? Are there anecdotes that residents of this area can share of being underserved or neglected? I believe that all of this evidence probably exists, and it would strengthen the TRC report to include it. (Or at the very least, to make sure that these stories and evidence are made public in other venues, such as in the Sentinel, public gatherings, etc.). I imagine that it would be pretty easy to ask some Carlisle High school or Dickinson College students to work in gathering this data and summarizing it in an easy-to-digest format. Anti-racism work often involves building broad coalitions, and simple stories and anecdotes can really help in that regard.

-Given that the TRC was created by the Borough Council for the Borough Council, it makes sense that most of the recommendations center on things that the local government can do, whether through Borough programs, incentives, regulations, etc. It’s also possible that space in the report was limited and the decision was made to focus on the governmental side of things. However, for full progress to be made in our community we will also need to pay attention to and fully leverage the numerous other public, private, and non-profit institutions that operate in Carlisle on the front lines of equity work. Whether that’s the YWCA, the United Way, Rotary, Safe Harbors, etc., these institutions are on the front lines of caring for marginalized residents in Carlisle every day, and can thus have a disproportionate impact in the fight for justice. I also find it interesting that the only reference to Dickinson College or to “religious orders” in the TRC report are both somewhat negative, when both Dickinson and local communities of faith generally have an outsize role in our community–for better or for worse. They will inevitably need be a part of any further progress that is made in Carlisle. To put too much of the onus for anti-racism on local government officials and policies, without involving other entities –including ones that have historically been part of the problem!– could result in anti-racism efforts being hindered. To name just one example, efforts to create vibrant and affordable neighborhoods would benefit from open and honest conversations with institutions like Dickinson College or even the church I attend, New Life Community, which is currently hiring for a full-time position to work on housing access and affordability.

Now, as previously stated, overall I think the TRC did great work and my two concerns are not to detract from it, but rather just to elaborate on it some more. I hope and pray that the recommendations within this document are taken seriously in Carlisle and adopted (where possible) by the Borough Council.

Sabbatical Begins

As some of you know, this week I begin a 6-month sabbatical from my work with InterVarsity Christian Fellowship! This is a gracious gift offered to paid employees after 7 sequential years of service (it’s been 8.5 for me), and I’ve been looking forward to it for quite some time. Already, I have deactivated all of my social media profiles, set up work email’s autoresponder, and deleted any work-related apps off of my phone. Beyond that, during this sabbatical I am looking forward more time to read, write, pray, sleep, be outside, do small house projects, and spend time with my family.

This Sunday I was reflecting on the concept of fasting, i.e., abstaining from something (usually food) for a designated period of time, usually with the goal of gaining greater spiritual focus, clarity, insight, or depth. And in some ways, I think that a sabbatical (a period of “fasting” from work) is very similar to a period of fasting from food.

Like food, work was designed by God as a good thing for humans to have and to enjoy–both existed in the Garden of Eden before sin entered the world. However, we see in our present world that humans have a broken relationship with both of these things in many ways. Thus fasting and sabbaticals (or even just a weekly Sabbath) are crucial spiritual disciplines to remind ourselves as humans that ultimately these things are not where our identity can be found, but rather in being children of God. Both fasting and sabbaticals are deeply biblical, and we can see periods of both fasting and rest (sometimes both at the same time!) being commanded of God’s people throughout Scripture.

For myself, I have always been a high achiever and a hard worker, ever since entering school 25 years ago and the workforce 10 years ago. I am a little scared but mostly eager for these next 6 months to rest and to reflect deeply on who I am when I am not achieving something. It’s for that reason that I have kept my goals and plans fairly minimal for this time–I could of course take a seminary course or start a side hustle, but then I would still feel tempted by the idol of productivity. I am instead going to try my best to embrace the gift of rest and all that God has for me.

If you are the praying sort, please pray for God to meet me during the next six months. Thank you!