Tag: Abortion

Why did the Republicans underperform so badly in the 2022 midterms?

From 2021 onward, I was telling people around me to expect a big Republican wave in the 2022 midterms elections. Even though Joe Biden had just won a sizable victory over Donald Trump in November 2020, and inflation had yet to emerge at that point, any political scientist or historian could tell you that the President’s party almost always loses seats in their first midterm election. (The only notable exception was in 2002, when George W. Bush coasted on the popularity he gained after 9/11 and Republicans picked up both houses of Congress). Even in February 2021, but especially after the messy retreat from Afghanistan and economic turmoil, it seemed inevitable that the Republicans would win the Senate and House–it was just a question of how big that would be. Many Republican pundits prophesied a “Red Tsunami,” a historic win demolishing the Democrats across the board.

Instead, what we saw in the 2022 midterms was barely a red trickle. Republicans failed to secure the Senate, and barely eked out a narrow majority in the House. Why was that? I have four reasons why I think that Republicans underperformed in the midterms. Most of these reasons are fairly well sourced and accepted by other political scientists, but I wanted to gather them in one place for posterity’s sake. Interestingly, many of these reasons will continue to apply in future elections in 2024 and 2026, no matter who the candidates are, so they’re worth paying attention to.

Before we dive in: Let me must first note that America is a deeply polarized nation and that the margins between the two parties are very tight. Even just changing a few thousand votes can make the difference between victory and defeat. So as I go through these four reasons for the Republicans’ lackluster performance, know that even if they only affected 1% or even .1% of the population, that can be enough to swing many close elections.

#1 – Trump — and his handpicked candidates– turned off many voters.

Even though Trump wasn’t on the ballot, many voters explicitly rallied against candidates that were seen as too “Trumpy”, extreme, or otherwise hateful. Moderate Republicans won big in many races, while more radical candidates were rejected. It became clear that some voters even engaged in “ticket-splitting”, where they voted straight Republican for more local races but voted against people they didn’t trust at the top of the ticket, like Dr. Oz in PA, Heschel Walker in GA, and others. While a majority of voters dislike Democrat policies and politicians, they fear extreme Republicans even more and are willing to vote accordingly. What should have been a referendum on Biden-who is very unpopular-became a referendum on Donald Trump, who is even more unpopular. [This is the main reason I believe that if Trump runs in 2024, he will probably lose, whereas any other Republican seen as less Trumpy would definitely win.]

#2- The Republican cries against mail-in ballots (and trust in elections overall) may be driving down their turnout in otherwise winnable races.

Mail-in ballots have been used for over a decade in places like Colorado, where they were seen as trustworthy, non-partisan, and secure. On the whole mail-in ballots SHOULD privilege Republicans, who tend to be older and have more stable mailing addresses. (I know many young Democrats who don’t know how to address an envelope and who move every 6 months, and I know many elderly home-bound Republicans who would strongly benefit from being able to vote by mail.) Unfortunately, because of the Republican turn against mail-in ballots, most Republicans refuse to use them. That’s a shame, because that means that when election day comes around, if an inconvenience comes up that makes voting difficult, a certain percentage of Republicans just won’t vote at all, whereas Democrats would have already locked in their votes weeks prior.

Or even setting aside mail-in voting; there are so many Republicans who now believe that elections are completely rigged and that their votes don’t matter even if they vote in person. These Republicans may decide to give up on elections altogether and either embrace apathy or alternative ways to engage with politics…for better or for worse. I think this dynamic is going to be a long-term drag on the Republican Party’s electoral prospects for at least a few election cycles.

#3- Shy Abortion Voters may be emerging from the woodwork (and pro-life voters may be about to lose some steam)

In 2016, many pundits wrote about “shy Trump voters”, AKA those who weren’t showing up in official polls but who nonetheless turned out to vote for him in his surprise win over Hillary Clinton. In 2022, we may be seeing the emergence of “shy abortion voters” who were reacting against the end of Roe v. Wade and the passage of very strong anti-abortion laws in some states. These voters may not have cared much about abortion before 2022 when it was generally legal with some restrictions, but when they saw that it might become totally illegal even in cases of rape and incest, they decided that was a step too far. Even in very conservative Kansas, voters overwhelmingly rejected an abortion ban. The more extreme the rhetoric that comes from Republicans, the more likely this will become a stronger driving force for Democrat turnout.

On the flip-side, now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned some Republicans feel a bit dazed. What do we do now? Overturning a the national legal right to abortion was an easy, singular cause to rally people around. But now that that’s been accomplished and any gains must come at the state level, it will be harder to motivate the base in future elections, especially when the gains seem more controversial.

#4- COVID killed more Republicans than Democrats

This point may feel a bit hard to believe, but the data actually bears it out. While when COVID first hit it primarily affected liberal cities, but now it’s infected 90+% of Americans. As I stated earlier, on average Republican voters are older than Democrat voters, and thus more susceptible to death from COVID. Additionally, once the vaccine came out thanks to the Trump administration’s “Operation Warp Speed”, on average Republicans rejected it at far higher rates than Democrats. (Even Democratic-leaning communities that have reason to be skeptical of government medical inventions, such as Native Americans, African-Americans, and other people of color, have generally received the vaccine at higher rates than Republicans.) It is well known that unvaccinated people die from COVID at far higher rates than vaccinated people.

The end result? Of the 1.1 MILLION Americans that have died of COVID, a disproportionate amount of them were Republicans. That’s an average of 22,000 people in each state. In close races where even 1,000 votes can swing an election, that’s going to have an impact. (For example, Lauren Boebert, Republican firebrand, won her election by less than 600 votes).

IN CONCLUSION, while many of the midterm elections in 2022 were clearly won at the local level based on local issues, there are a handful of reasons that the Republicans nationally underperformed. Unfortunately for Republicans, all four of these reasons look likely to continue to have an impact in 2024 and beyond. If Republicans manage to win elections, it will be based on them overcoming these hindrances and leveraging other strengths, such as their recent gains among Latinos. But in the meantime two key recommendations I might have for them would be to figure out a way to get their voters to trust in elections again, and to find a way to quietly ditch Donald Trump.

A pro-family bill that both pro-life & pro-choice advocates could support

Abortion is perhaps the single most divisive and electorally important issue in American politics today. This fact is strange when you consider that study after study shows the vast majority of Americans neither want abortion to be 100% illegal in all circumstances nor 100% legal in all circumstances. Most Americans occupy a middle space with some level of discomfort with abortion but not wishing for a complete ban (similar to the majority opinion about firearms).

SO…what if I told you that there was a series of pro-family policies that could significantly decrease the number of abortions? That’d be a huge win for conservatives! But what if I told you that these also happen to be policies that progressives would also support? You probably wouldn’t believe me. But follow my logic.

To give some context, the top reasons women give for getting an abortion are as follows (respondents were allowed to select more than one):

  • 1. Not financially prepared: 40%
  • 2. Bad timing, not ready, or unplanned: 36%
  • 3. Partner-related reasons (including the relationship is bad or new, she doesn’t want to be a single mother, her partner is not supportive, does not want the baby, is abusive, or just the wrong guy): 31%
  • 4. Need to focus on her other children: 29%
  • 5. Interferes with educational or vocational plans: 20%
  • 6. Not emotionally or mentally prepared: 19%
  • 7. Health-related reasons (includes concern for own health or health of fetus, use of drugs, alcohol, or tobacco): 12%
  • 8. Want a better life for a baby than she could provide: 12%
  • 9. Not independent or mature enough for a baby: 7%
  • 10. Influence from family or friends: 5%
  • 11: Doesn’t want a baby or to place them for adoption: 4%

Now, imagine a legislative bill that included the following elements:

  • 6 month guaranteed paid leave for both parents, w/ a job guaranteed afterwards
  • Free short-term birth control (i.e. condoms) available to anyone in schools, corner stores, etc.
  • Free long-term birth control available to everyone over 18 (i.e. IUDs, vasectomy, etc)
  • Comprehensive sex education in high school, w/ emphasis on building healthy romantic relationships and not rushing into sex
  • Increased housing option and support services for women with children fleeing situations of domestic abuse
  • The recent Biden child tax credit ($300/month from birth to age 6) being expanded to last for 10 years, with a provision to increase annually according to inflation
  • Subsidies for daycare for low and middle class families.
  • Universal, affordable health care for all mothers and babies.
  • Counseling and support services for expectant and new mothers required to be provided through every insurance plan – including doulas and other delivery support
  • Additional research and support for women with risky pregnancies and/or babies with birth defects (Down syndrome, etc).
  • Increased funding into research into the causes and potential treatments for infertility (i.e. endometriosis, decreasing sperm counts in American men, etc).

If you pay any attention to politics, you would know that the policies listed above would be incredibly popular with progressives. But consider how drastically the abortion rate would plummet if these policies were put into place! If our society provided all of the financial, emotional, and healthcare supports listed above, there would be far fewer unplanned and unwanted pregnancies. Honestly, based on how fast the abortion rate plummeted when Obamacare was signed into law (which provided cheap access to birth control), I predict the abortion rate could be cut in half in 10 years or less! And if my estimates are correct, it could all be paid for just by reversing the 2017 Trump tax cuts (with plenty of money leftover).

So the obvious question is–if this is a win-win for both progressives and conservatives, why couldn’t the federal government (or a state, for that matter) pass the above policies tomorrow? And the obvious reason is: many Republicans in government don’t like spending government money unless it’s for defense or a tax cut. The rhetoric about abortion, for too many elected Republicans, is just rhetoric: it wins elections and gets conservative judges into power, but as for actually helping women avoid abortion in the first place…it doesn’t seem to matter.

I would argue, it’s time for pro-life politicians to put their money where their mouth is. If abortion is an existential problem facing American society, then partner with progressives to pass the policies I listed above. And if it’s not, then stop using it as a cudgel in the culture wars.

Want fewer abortions? The evidence suggests you should vote Democrat

Today was the annual “March For Life,” the largest pro-life demonstration in the US, hosted in Washington DC on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade. It’s particularly significant this year because Donald Trump was the first sitting US president to attend in its 47-year history (I won’t dwell on the latent hypocrisy of having Trump speak, who was staunchly pro-choice until recently and is said to have paid for as many as eight of his lovers’ abortions). At the March For Life, all of the pro-life speakers and marchers wish to see fewer abortions, and the vast majority believe that voting for Republicans like Donald Trump are the way to do it.

But what if that’s not the case? What if, despite their pro-choice rhetoric, Democrats actually have the best path to fewer abortions? And what if, despite their pro-life rhetoric, Republican policies lead to an increase in the number of abortions?

New York Times, January 24, 2020

Obama’s Legacy

In 2008, many evangelicals voted for John McCain over Barack Obama, and one of their main stated reasons was that Obama had stated support for overturning the ban against so-called “partial-birth abortions”, a statistically rare but very graphic procedure. During his eight years in office, that issue never actually came up, and the ban stayed in place.

Interestingly enough, despite being “pro-choice,” President Obama actually presided over the largest decrease in abortion the United States has ever seen. By the time Obama left office, abortion rates were at their lowest since the Roe v. Wade ruling in 1973. This was not due to states passing anti-abortion laws: in fact, states that limited abortion, such as Mississippi, saw an increase in the number of abortions. So why did abortions rates fall nationally? The main reason is that Obamacare (Affordable Care Act) increased access to cheap, effective, contraceptives. In barely two years after Obamacare was passed, the rate of unplanned pregnancies had already dropped by 6%.

It’s incredibly simple: when there are fewer unplanned pregnancies, there are fewer abortions.

Because cheap, easy access to contraception prevents unplanned pregnancies from ever happening, it serves as a more effective prevention of abortion (at least as compared to working on the back end to try to ban/convince women from procuring an abortion after they’re already pregnant).

Why the rhetoric doesn’t match reality

If Obama’s policies indeed lowered the abortion rate, why is it that Democrats don’t get any credit among the people at March For Life? Well, it’s a bit complicated. In the early 90s, Bill Clinton pioneered the phrase that abortion should be “safe, legal, and rare.” This promoted the Democrat’s pro-choice platform, while still making room for pro-life advocates. But in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s platform severed the word “rare,” because it seemed to compromise the party’s pro-choice position. In a tight race, the Clinton campaign gambled that it was worth doing this to bolster the enthusiasm of her left flank–but at the ultimate expense of pro-life Democrats and independents.

It feels to me that even a small shift in Democrats’ rhetoric in 2020 could help them capture back pro-life voters who dislike Donald Trump but aren’t enthusiastic about abortion. There are a number of prominent activist groups espousing a “consistent life ethic” who fit in well with the Democratic Party on every other issue–anti-pollution, social welfare, anti-death penalty, anti-war, etc…except for abortion. If Democrats would simply argue–”We will defend abortion rights at all costs, but please notice that we are also doing more to decrease the need for abortion in the first place than the Republicans ever would”– that feels to me like a winning argument for them.

Of course, that’s all hypothetical. I’m not sure if any leading Democrats would make that argument in 2020, and certainly not right now in the primaries when they are trying to win over the staunchest liberals.

Decision time

So what’s a pro-life voter to do? Ultimately, I would argue that, despite being counter-intuitive, the evidence suggests that a vote for Republicans is a vote for more abortions, and a vote for Democrats is a vote for fewer abortions. There are three main reasons for this:

  1. Contraception. Republicans hate government-funded healthcare, particularly when it comes to contraception. Since 2016 they have fought tooth and nail to repeal Obamacare and to prevent government funding for contraception. If more Republicans are elected, they will continue make it more costly and difficult to have contraceptives, which will likely lead to more unplanned pregnancies (and thus more abortions). In contrast, if Democrats are elected, they will work for cheaper, more widespread access to contraceptives which will lead to fewer unplanned pregnancies and fewer abortions.
  2. Social safety nets. One of the main reasons women choose to have an abortion is socioeconomic–they fear that they will not have the support they need to raise a child: cheap healthcare, fair wages, paid maternity leave, quality schools, etc. In general, Democrats want to increase the amount of assistance that goes to poor people, while Republicans want to cut it off. When there is a stronger safety net for women, it decreases the need for abortion, so if more Democrats are elected in 2020 we will likely see a continued decrease in the abortion rate.
  3. Comprehensive sex education. In recent years, the rate of teen pregnancies has dropped to record lows. The explanations are varied, but one of the key factors is the rise of comprehensive sex education that teaches teenagers about topics like contraception. In general, Republicans are opposed to sex education and prefer abstinence-based approaches (which have lower rates of success), while Democrats wish to see even more sex education.

One of my predictions in 2016 was that if Donald Trump was elected, we would see the number of abortions increase for all the reasons mentioned above. It’s a bit early to tell and the data is complicated, but in general it seems like my prediction has been proven true. Since Donald Trump became president, the number of abortions performed by Planned Parenthood in the US has increased substantially (despite “pro-life” Donald Trump having control of all 3 branches of government). In addition, Trump’s cuts to foreign aid via have decreased international funding for contraception, leading to an increase in the number of abortions overseas as well.

It’s unfortunate that rhetoric has become so confusing. But the answers seem pretty clear: in the 2020 election, if someone’s #1 priority is seeing fewer abortions, then that person should not vote Republican, they should vote Democrat. It’s counterintuitive, but that’s what the facts suggest.