Today was the annual “March For Life,” the largest pro-life demonstration in the US, hosted in Washington DC on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade. It’s particularly significant this year because Donald Trump was the first sitting US president to attend in its 47-year history (I won’t dwell on the latent hypocrisy of having Trump speak, who was staunchly pro-choice until recently and is said to have paid for as many as eight of his lovers’ abortions). At the March For Life, all of the pro-life speakers and marchers wish to see fewer abortions, and the vast majority believe that voting for Republicans like Donald Trump are the way to do it.
But what if that’s not the case? What if, despite their pro-choice rhetoric, Democrats actually have the best path to fewer abortions? And what if, despite their pro-life rhetoric, Republican policies lead to an increase in the number of abortions?
Obama’s Legacy
In 2008, many evangelicals voted for John McCain over Barack Obama, and one of their main stated reasons was that Obama had stated support for overturning the ban against so-called “partial-birth abortions”, a statistically rare but very graphic procedure. During his eight years in office, that issue never actually came up, and the ban stayed in place.
Interestingly enough, despite being “pro-choice,” President Obama actually presided over the largest decrease in abortion the United States has ever seen. By the time Obama left office, abortion rates were at their lowest since the Roe v. Wade ruling in 1973. This was not due to states passing anti-abortion laws: in fact, states that limited abortion, such as Mississippi, saw an increase in the number of abortions. So why did abortions rates fall nationally? The main reason is that Obamacare (Affordable Care Act) increased access to cheap, effective, contraceptives. In barely two years after Obamacare was passed, the rate of unplanned pregnancies had already dropped by 6%.
It’s incredibly simple: when there are fewer unplanned pregnancies, there are fewer abortions.
Because cheap, easy access to contraception prevents unplanned pregnancies from ever happening, it serves as a more effective prevention of abortion (at least as compared to working on the back end to try to ban/convince women from procuring an abortion after they’re already pregnant).
Why the rhetoric doesn’t match reality
If Obama’s policies indeed lowered the abortion rate, why is it that Democrats don’t get any credit among the people at March For Life? Well, it’s a bit complicated. In the early 90s, Bill Clinton pioneered the phrase that abortion should be “safe, legal, and rare.” This promoted the Democrat’s pro-choice platform, while still making room for pro-life advocates. But in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s platform severed the word “rare,” because it seemed to compromise the party’s pro-choice position. In a tight race, the Clinton campaign gambled that it was worth doing this to bolster the enthusiasm of her left flank–but at the ultimate expense of pro-life Democrats and independents.
It feels to me that even a small shift in Democrats’ rhetoric in 2020 could help them capture back pro-life voters who dislike Donald Trump but aren’t enthusiastic about abortion. There are a number of prominent activist groups espousing a “consistent life ethic” who fit in well with the Democratic Party on every other issue–anti-pollution, social welfare, anti-death penalty, anti-war, etc…except for abortion. If Democrats would simply argue–”We will defend abortion rights at all costs, but please notice that we are also doing more to decrease the need for abortion in the first place than the Republicans ever would”– that feels to me like a winning argument for them.
Of course, that’s all hypothetical. I’m not sure if any leading Democrats would make that argument in 2020, and certainly not right now in the primaries when they are trying to win over the staunchest liberals.
Decision time
So what’s a pro-life voter to do? Ultimately, I would argue that, despite being counter-intuitive, the evidence suggests that a vote for Republicans is a vote for more abortions, and a vote for Democrats is a vote for fewer abortions. There are three main reasons for this:
- Contraception. Republicans hate government-funded healthcare, particularly when it comes to contraception. Since 2016 they have fought tooth and nail to repeal Obamacare and to prevent government funding for contraception. If more Republicans are elected, they will continue make it more costly and difficult to have contraceptives, which will likely lead to more unplanned pregnancies (and thus more abortions). In contrast, if Democrats are elected, they will work for cheaper, more widespread access to contraceptives which will lead to fewer unplanned pregnancies and fewer abortions.
- Social safety nets. One of the main reasons women choose to have an abortion is socioeconomic–they fear that they will not have the support they need to raise a child: cheap healthcare, fair wages, paid maternity leave, quality schools, etc. In general, Democrats want to increase the amount of assistance that goes to poor people, while Republicans want to cut it off. When there is a stronger safety net for women, it decreases the need for abortion, so if more Democrats are elected in 2020 we will likely see a continued decrease in the abortion rate.
- Comprehensive sex education. In recent years, the rate of teen pregnancies has dropped to record lows. The explanations are varied, but one of the key factors is the rise of comprehensive sex education that teaches teenagers about topics like contraception. In general, Republicans are opposed to sex education and prefer abstinence-based approaches (which have lower rates of success), while Democrats wish to see even more sex education.
One of my predictions in 2016 was that if Donald Trump was elected, we would see the number of abortions increase for all the reasons mentioned above. It’s a bit early to tell and the data is complicated, but in general it seems like my prediction has been proven true. Since Donald Trump became president, the number of abortions performed by Planned Parenthood in the US has increased substantially (despite “pro-life” Donald Trump having control of all 3 branches of government). In addition, Trump’s cuts to foreign aid via have decreased international funding for contraception, leading to an increase in the number of abortions overseas as well.
It’s unfortunate that rhetoric has become so confusing. But the answers seem pretty clear: in the 2020 election, if someone’s #1 priority is seeing fewer abortions, then that person should not vote Republican, they should vote Democrat. It’s counterintuitive, but that’s what the facts suggest.